Here’s who national experts predict will win the KC Chiefs-Jaguars playoff game

A stat widely shared on social media noted that the Jacksonville Jaguars have amassed eight playoff wins since joining the NFL in 1995.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was born in 1995, also has eight playoff wins. The day Mahomes was born, the Jaguars were playing their third game in franchise history.

That connection between Mahomes and the Jaguars is an odd coincidence and somewhat amusing.

Mahomes will guide the Chiefs to Saturday’s AFC divisional playoff game against the Jaguars. Who will get that ninth win?

Here’s who 45 national experts predict will win the game, which begins at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday and will air on KSHB (channel 41).

A 34-24 Chiefs win is the prediction of Sporting News’ Bill Bender. This is an excerpt from their story: “Both teams closed the regular season with five-game winning streaks. Lawrence and Travis Etienne have made the difference, and the defense stopped the Chargers’ running game. Kansas City presents a much tougher challenge on the road, and Patrick Mahomes II is 8-3 in the postseason with 28 TDs and seven interceptions. … The Chiefs won the regular season matchup 27-17. The same margin holds here in a higher scoring game.”

All eight CBS Sports writers have the Chiefs winning: Jason LaCanfora, Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, Will Brinson, John Breech, Dave Richard, Ryan Wilson and Jamey Eisenberg. Prisco sees a score of 34-28. Here’s part of what he wrote: “The Jags don’t rush the passer as well, which is a big plus for Patrick Mahomes. Jacksonville did not have a sack in the first meeting. That’s always a problem against Mahomes. I see the Jaguars scoring against a Chiefs defense that can be beaten when Trevor Lawrence plays well.”

The Chiefs are the writers’ pick for Pro Football Talk. Michael David Smith predicted a score of 30-21. He wrote in part: “The Jaguars are already in the divisional round in Year One of Doug Pederson and Year Two of Trevor Lawrence is a great sign of where this team is headed. But they’re still not at the level of the team that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have in Kansas City.” Mike Florio sees a 30-27 finish. This is part of what he wrote: “The Chiefs are on alert. It won’t surprise me at all if the Jaguars win the game. They are loose. They have nothing to lose. The Chiefs may be looking past the Jaguars, with a much-hyped rematch with the Bills looming.”

Nine of the Athletic’s 10 writers picked the Chiefs to win: Zack Berman, Larry Holder, Michael-Shawn Dugar, Mark Kaboly, Josh Kendall, Nick Kosminder, Austin Mock, Tashan Reed and Ben Standig. The only pick for Jacksonville came from Jay Morrison. Here’s an excerpt from what Adam Gretz wrote: “The big question for the Jaguars here will be whether or not they can avoid another slow start. Jacksonville has been used to poor first halves all year, posting a minus-11 first-half point differential this season, one of the worst marks in the league. They topped that with a plus-65 mark in the second half of games, which was the fourth-best mark in the league.”

A 30-23 Chiefs win is the prediction of’s Gregg Rosenthal. Here’s a snippet of their story: “Both have a group of weapons greater than the sum of their parts, built on brilliant plays and smart quarterbacks who win before the snap more than their fair share. But let’s not get carried away with Trevor Lawrence’s development here. He’s great, but he’s not the great Patrick Mahomes of 2018, let alone the Patrick Mahomes of 2023.”

Five of seven writers picked the Jaguars in a Florida Times-Union story: Demetrius Harvey (35-31 final score), Mike DiRocco (33-31), Gene Frenette (30-27), Juston Lewis (31-27) and Tim Walters (3-34). Taking on the Chiefs: Garry Smits (24-17) and Clayton Freeman (30-24). Walters wrote in part: “Football is crazy and the Chiefs are one of the few constants. However, there is always an upset per weekend, and the Jaguars seem to have the momentum to be the special upset of all four games this weekend. With that, the Jags fall behind in the first half, the defense clamps down in the second half, and the Jags offense takes advantage of the No. 16 defense in the league to run and win a crazy game by one point. I would say it seems crazy if it hadn’t already happened five times this season.”

Joining the Chiefs are all six USA Today writers: Jarrett Bell (31-27 final score), Chris Bumbaca (35-27), Nate Davis (30-23), Safid Deen (37-31), Tyler Dragon (32 – 24) and Lorenzo Reyes (31-26).

ESPN’s five pundits have the Chiefs winning: Stephania Bell, Mike Clay, Dan Graziano and Seth Wickersham.

The Chiefs are the pick of five Sports Illustrated writers: Conor Orr, Gary Grammling, John Pluym, Albert Breer and Mitch Goldich.

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